2012 contest?By Arturo Mora, Kansas City Star Midwest Voices columnist 2009
Any judgment of Barack Obama’s presidency based on a handful of off-year races is overstating the case. Trying to decipher the real meaning is something like reading tea leaves, and just as reliable. Still, they are clues and warnings, at least, for the national parties. My reading of the leaves: independents flexed their muscle and gave Obama a warning, passing health care reform is going to be a little harder but still in the cards, and New York voters deepened the Republican identity crisis. You could say this was in a part the opening blow of Obama vs. Sarah Palin 2012, and I’d have to call it an even match.
Each side has already put their own spin on last Tuesday’s vote. The Republican victories in gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey were either indications of strong Republican candidates, dissatisfaction with visible economic progress, an indication of Palin’s powerful influence, or a referendum on Obama’s ambitious budget, healthcare and energy proposals.
At the very least, those votes, where independents abandoned Democrats big time, should make the Obama Administration uneasy about pushing their big plans much harder as the 2010 congressional elections inch closer. The healthcare push will get wrapped up, but will they reconsider how hard to push the next big fight, for cap-and-trade climate legislation? Both are necessary, but it’s going to take some tenacity to stick it through.
This election will not kill healthcare reform. Obama and congressional Democrats are pretty much all-in on that one by now. The House is solid, and the only remaining question is how deftly Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid can dance his way around the 60-vote filibuster roadblock. These results will just make his job a tad harder, as a few fence-sitting Democratic Senators get even more nervous.
The Democratic victory in New York’s 23rd Congressional District is another matter, and muddles any clear reading. Any number of factors could explain a solid Republican district voting Democrat Bill Owens into office. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman might have been seen as a carpetbagger—who doesn’t even live in the district—foisted on the locals by national conservatives. Maybe it was a rejection or resentment of Palin, who joined those who pressured the original Republican candidate to drop out of the race.
Palin has been persistenly out front as a national political figure since resigning as governor, but it’s hard to say that she’s been successful. Polls show her dropping instead of gaining in popularity, and now pundits will try to hang this loss on her. It’s unfair, but it’s part of being a major, and willing, player in the current conservative-moderate debate within the Republican Party. This New York race, more than anything, puts at least a question mark to the notion that the party needs to further solidify its conservative principles.
This election was just a tease for political junkies. 2010, the truly big show, is an eon away. If Obama can get the economy moving in time, make a stronger case for the spending and sacrifices in the healthcare and energy reforms, and avoid any more big initiatives after those, independent voters might just come back to his party. If not, and Palin can show real influence that helps lead her party to victory, it may just set up the battle royale that has the junkies dreaming: Obama vs Palin 2012.
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GOP Scores! Obama double-dribbles
Arturo Mora,
Oh, sure - GOP spanked the Admin!
Scary thing for the Beltway Democrats, Obama couldn't pull votes. Even those who like him, couldn't be bothered to go poll.
And since his vote-pulling Mojo is deflated, those he wants to stick their necks out for big legislation - on the idea that Obama will later ride to their electoral rescue - now see that he likely won't be able to do nuthin' for them, after all.
Finally, unemployment just blew through 10% like it wasn't even there. Yeah, Obama is so in trouble, alright.
Ted Clayton
Not surprisingly, I disagree Arturo
1) Any judgment of Barack Obama’s presidency based on a handful of off-year races is overstating the case.....
2) health care reform is going to be a little harder but still in the cards, and New York voters deepened the Republican identity crisis....
3) You could say this was in a part the opening blow of Obama vs. Sarah Palin 2012, and I’d have to call it an even match.
4) At the very least, those votes, where independents abandoned Democrats big time, should make the Obama Administration uneasy about pushing their big plans much harder as the 2010 congressional elections inch closer.
5) Both are necessary, but it’s going to take some tenacity to stick it through.
6) .....will not kill healthcare reform. Obama and congressional Democrats are pretty much all-in on that one by now.
7) ....This New York race, more than anything, puts at least a question mark to the notion that the party needs to further solidify its conservative principles.
8) This election was just a tease for political junkies.....it may just set up the battle royale that has the junkies dreaming: Obama vs Palin 2012.
1) I agree on your stated point...but believe that Obama's inability to effectively meet an overwhelming majority of his campaign commitments is steadily eroding his appeal to all those but the most dedicated and committed liberals.
2) Congress may well pass a very watered down health care reform package....but if they do the dems will get killed in '10. The republicans do not suffer from an identity crisis....they suffer from stupidity in their processes. When you have a group of 8 people select a party candidate you will frequently end up with an unappealing candidate or office holder (see Phill Kline in JOCO)
3) Obams is in...Palin is not...nor will she be. She will most likely be the republican equivalent of a financial "market maker" and will be sought after in '10 by candidates for her blessing....as absurd as that seems.
4) Obama should be wary....but he surrounds himself with a bunch of sycophants who will convince him not to be worried. His arrogance and inability to lead, already glaring, will become virtually comical in the next 10 months.
5) Neither is necessary.....both are extremist bills, crippling to our economy and to our deficit and if either is passed it will doom the dems in '10.
6) The blue dogs are feeling the pressure and are hardly "all in" as you suggest. When folks like Ike Skelton are abandoning the ship of fools the entire movement is in jeopardy.
7) NY 23 is a great example of what should happen when a non resident has the temerity to run in a district in which he does not reside, Period. Nothing more. I will wager my life savings on NY 23 going back into the (R) column in '10. Owens is far more conservative than Scozzafava is. The people will choose a more practical, conservative republican candidate. (just as JOCO did)
8) I am a political junkie and a Palin/Obama race in '12 is a worst case scenario. It must not happen. It is the political equivalent of doubling down on stupid....the 2 worst, most extreme candidates possible. Palin would be a catastrophe for the R's as all but the most staunch dems will be abandoning Obama en masse by then....unless Palin is the nominee.
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