By E. Thomas McClanahan, Kansas City Star Editorial Page columnist

And fading fast. At Intrade, where you can bet real money on such things, the likelihood of health reform with a public option by December has dropped from about 50 percent in August to around 10 percent today .
People who support this idea say it will lower costs and boost competition, but it will do neither. If a public option has access to tax money, the competition won't be fair: It will yank the props from under the private insurors by lowballing suppliers.
Oh, goody, some will say. Lower prices! Not really: You'll pay one way or another. It won't be long before Uncle Sam's Health Care is the only player of note, in which case we'd all become entitled -- and on the hook for the enormous tax increases needed to control the ever-rising deficit.
But that's hardly the end of it. Once you start lowballing suppliers as Washington does with Medicare, you're bound to end up with fewer health care workers. That points to rationing.
As Megan McArdle notes, doctors and nurses have figured this out and will likely oppose a bill with a strong public option. They will be tougher to demonize than the insurance companies.
The House passed big tax increases to pay for health care. Those are unlikely to get through the Senate, unless the Dems go berserk and pass this under reconciliation rules, which requires only a bare majority. The trend at Intrade tells the story: The public option's chances are diminishing.