MideastBy Larry Marsh, Kansas City Star Midwest Voices columnist

For years Israeli leaders have urged Palestinian leaders to make peace with Israel as a path to prosperity for the Palestinian people. In an interview with Charlie Rose on PBS taped prior to his speech to the United Nations, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reversed this logic.

In his interview with Charlie Rose Israel's prime minister recognized the importance of improving the economic condition of the Palestinian people as part of the path to peace. While he didn't offer direct assistance, he did emphasize that Israel will do what it can to enhance the economy of the West Bank.

Social scientists have studied the prosperity-democracy-peace nexus for many years. With exceptions such as India notwithstanding, a stable, long-lasting democracy generally requires approximately $6,000 of income per person. Democracy is quite fragile in countries with lower per capita incomes (e.g. Honduras: $3,100). King Abdullah of Jordan raised this issue with President Bush concerning the Iraq invasion noting that Iraq's per capita income is less than half the required amount. Apparently President Bush was not persuaded.

The bottom line is that a life of poverty is a life without hope. People with something to live for do not become suicide bombers. It is not enough to offer a vague promise of prosperity after peace. Instead Prime Minister Netanyahu now recognizes the importance of improved economic conditions as an important aspect of the path toward peace.

The formula is simple and has been repeated again and again throughout modern history. Rising per capita income (and education) promotes stable democracy, and stable democracies do not attack one another.

One caveat to the income-democracy hypothesis is that countries where the government is highly dependent on oil and natural gas resources can fail to maintain stable democracy even with higher per capita incomes. Venezuela with a per capita income of $7,200 and Russia with $12,200 raise this concern.

Petro-dictatorships form when the people become too dependent on government handouts and foreign demand for oil and natural gas drives the value of a country's currency so high that its other products are priced out of world markets. Recent Iranian demonstrators have been very much aware of this pernicious effect of their country's dependency on oil and natural gas revenues.

For peace in the Middle East and democracy to thrive, regional incomes must rise and governments dependent on natural resources for the bulk of their revenues must diversify. King Abdullah II of Jordan has understood this for some time. Now Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is getting the idea.

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