By Larry Marsh, Kansas City Star Midwest Voices columnist
The volatility of crude oil prices will undermine Barack Obama’s big effort to promote green jobs. The energy policies of past administrations failed because they failed to address this volatility.
Cheap oil makes alternative energy relatively expensive.
It takes only a few months of defaults on interest payments before lawyers for creditors force alternative energy companies into bankruptcy.
In the sell-off of assets, billions of dollars of alternative energy investments go right down the drain.
For example, after investing a billion dollars in alternative energy, VeraSun Energy recently had to declare bankruptcy because of cyclically low oil prices.
Standard Oil, under John D. Rockefeller, would occasionally set prices below cost to drive out competitors. The Soviet Union collapsed when oil prices dropped dramatically in the early 1990s.
To ensure the viability of alternative energy, the price of crude oil must be kept high enough to give reasonable alternative energy projects a chance.
However, we want the price obtained by anti-American countries and terrorists to be as low as possible.
The answer to this dilemma: Impose a variable tariff on imported crude that would bring it up to a target price. All revenues from the tariff would be given to American families in a monthly “energy allowance.”
Here is how it would work:
Say the world price for oil is $60 a barrel, and the U.S. had set a target price at $70. This results in a tariff of $10 on each barrel of imported oil.
The tariff depresses demand. Since the United States is the top oil user in the world, this may drive the world price down to $50 a barrel. The tariff would then rise to $20 a barrel to keep the target price at $70.
The system would work even better if we set the target price at a higher level, such as $80.
Demand would fall further, forcing world oil prices down to $40 a barrel. The tariff would then automatically rise to $40, keeping the domestic price up to the $80 target.
American refineries would pay $80 a barrel but foreign oil companies such as those in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and Russia would get only $40.
The higher the domestic price target, the larger the monthly energy allowance going to American families would be.
The variable tariff stabilizes oil prices by dampening both upward and downward price changes.
Will this violate World Trade Organization rules? Possibly.
If so, this would give the petro-dictators the right to retaliate by imposing tariffs on their imports.
Since these oil-exporting countries produce little else, however, they are unlikely to impose import restrictions. They import an insignificant portion of our total exports in any case.
Their more likely response would be another OPEC attempt at production cuts.
Let’s give alternative energy a chance to succeed. If we drop the 54-cent-a-gallon tariff on imported ethanol and pass a flex-fuel mandate, prices at the pump would drop quickly as more ethanol is used.
A $40 coupon towards a flex-fuel conversion kit for used cars would also help. The new sugar-corn ethanol will help, too.
During a recession, which causes oil prices to fall, we need to keep them up to protect alternative energy.
If our lawmakers fail to protect green jobs during occasional market dips, they will condemn America to perpetual foreign oil addiction.
Why wait and watch more alternative energy companies go bankrupt? Congress won’t act until you tell it how we can break out of this foreign oil addiction trap.
Larry Marsh is professor emeritus (retired) at the University of Notre Dame, where he taught economics for 30 years. He served with the U.S. Army in Vietnam. He lives in Kansas City. To reach Midwest Voices columnists, write to the author c/o the Editorial Page, The Kansas City Star, 1729 Grand Blvd., Kansas City, MO 64108, or send e-mail to
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securing our energy
Tom Ryan
The Crossroads
Kansas City, MO
God forbid your prediction comes true. Interdependence doesn't necessarily lead to predicatability or even rational action. The global economic crisis is proof enough of that. Apparently our moms were right when they asked, "if everybody else jumped off a cliff would you too?" Yes, yes we would (and did).
We need to be cognizant of our basic needs, food, shelter, ad safety. Underlying all of these is energy security.
If we don't protect the freedom of speech how will we know who the a$$#@les are?
I agree with your thoughts. Energy security, a new concept, is very important. How can we secure our energy? Perhaps this subject deserves its own thread here.
Outa gas & outa luck
The Crossroads
Kansas City, MO
God forbid your prediction comes true. Interdependence doesn't necessarily lead to predicatability or even rational action. The global economic crisis is proof enough of that. Apparently our moms were right when they asked, "if everybody else jumped off a cliff would you too?" Yes, yes we would (and did).
We need to be cognizant of our basic needs, food, shelter, ad safety. Underlying all of these is energy security.
If we don't protect the freedom of speech how will we know who the a$$#@les are?
in(ter?)dependence
Larry,
Your column is very interesting and proposes some plain-talk solutions. Your depth of knowledge and experience in economics will certainly add an important dimension of perspective to this blog and on the printed page in the coming year. My experience with energy production is limited to working for a French oil company in Nigeria in 2006/2007. Being at the source opened my eyes a great deal to the complexities of energy production, distribution, and continuity. Continuity is key. Many of our production companies struggle daily with fragile nation states and hostile on-the-ground environments. Petro-states like Nigeria and the world’s largest, Russia, possess the advantage of being autocracies in that their governments can make very fast and decisive decisions about production and distribution without taking arguments or decisions to a legislative body. Our government is not an autocracy (yet), although a few recent futurists see that the US heads in that direction. Our government will probably not adopt your solution as it is mindful of the interdependence of nation states, oil production companies, and the other economic actors like shipping companies who move energy across the world. Our government cannot act in a vacuum. The world’s oil production companies, also interdependent, share production licenses, shipping, pipelines, and exploration resources. They will not jeopardize partnerships and profits. The United States possesses a wealth of talent and experience in the field of petroleum engineering, upstream and downstream. Despite our best efforts otherwise, I believe that the “Petro-states” (USA included) and the oil companies will sort this out, but I fear the sorting will not be in “our national interest”.
The Crossroads
Kansas City, MO
Hungry Rogue? Eat your SUV
Thank you again, Rogue, for another insightful commentary. Your facile wit always brings a smile to my face. Actually my car averages close to 30 mpg so I doubt if I'll be needing your assistance but thanks for your kind offer. Is your pi$$ as flamable as your temper?
If we don't protect the freedom of speech how will we know who the a$$#@les are?
The bloom is off our rose
Apop I agree with you. The prestige and influence of the US has suffered greatly these past years but we aspire to regain that stature (moral and otherwise). My point is that we will be vulnerable to the machinations of the energy dictators unless we pursue a new course and that there are many benefits to that course besiide power and influence e.g. jobs.
If we don't protect the freedom of speech how will we know who the a$$#@les are?
actually, Rouge
is himself on of the idiots so responsible, with his glorification of big honkin' gas guzzlers.
Our troops thank you for supporting our enemies. What a moron.
Super Power?
Wake up people if we pursue the folly of Marsh and others like him, America will no longer exist as a super power able to determine our own destiny.
Sonofrogue misses his own point. If we want to remain a super power, an economic leader, rich nation we have to ensure our energy independence. That's why we must, at what ever cost necessary, pursue new energy technologies AND develop existing energy reserves. Reliance on energy sources from the last century will be our undoing. Look at how Russia is jerking Europe around by witholding natrual gas. Where would we be if there is regime change in Saudi Arabia or another OPEC embargo? Always taking the cheapest route is short sighted wisdom.
If we don't protect the freedom of speech how will we know who the a$$#@les are?
America also hasn't existed as a super power since Bush invaded Iraq, destroyed our reputation on the world stage and gutted our economy. Now we sit and watch our weapons that we paid for being launched into Gaza by Israel.
Until we renew our economy and stop throwing money at foreign wars we won't be the super power we once were.
Radicalized Moderate
You are one of the idiots responsible for $4.00 a gallon gasoline. I hope I find you on the road one day out of gas, because it will be my pleasure to pull and pi$$ in your gas tank dimwit.
OIL PRICES & THE CONSUMER
Consumers should remember who is in control of oil prices.
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http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2009/01/consumers-and-volatile-oil-prices.html
Twas, An Unintended Benefit to Me...
This keeping the demand strong for U.S. produced oil is an unintended benefit of the author's proposal. This stable demand will also stop the boom & bust cycles you mention. The sooner we can tell Saudia Arabia & co. to go pound sand, the better!!
As I stated earlier today though, it has to be revenue neutral, or it is merely another honey pot for our D.C. bees to eat and pass out to the "favored industries".