By Yael T. Abouhalkah, Kansas City Editorial Page columnist
Why polls matter: All of a sudden, John McCain has cut into Barack Obama's lead among likely voters. Obama is down to a 49-47 percent margin in Tuesday's Gallup Poll. And Obama has more troubles.
The sudden plunge on the likely voter poll pulls him below the winning 50 percent mark for the first time in more than a week.
In other words, even as Democrats become more confident of victory on Nov. 4, the polls are showing McCain pulling closer to his own victory.
What's that mean for McCain?
On Tuesday, he stayed on message, telling voters that he and Sarah Palin actually can win despite what the polls say today.
"It's wonderful to fool the pundits because we're going to win the state of Pennsylvania," McCain said in that state, where he's trailing Obama.
And if the polls suddenly start showing that McCain is staying closer to Obama these last few days, that could re-energize Republicans to come to the polls to vote for the GOP standard bearer.
Any good news for Obama? Yes.
He had a similar, small lead among likely voters in mid-October, but lengthened it to as high as 51-44 percent just four days ago.
Now Obama and his supporters have to hope he can rebound in the polls again and grab a lead that holds through Election Day.
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McCain bandwagon.
There are many reasons more Americas will vote for McCain and Palin and why Obama and Biden are sliding in the polls: Defense - McCain. Health care - McCain. Energy - McCain. Immigration - McCain. Taxes - McCain. Jobs - McCain. Courts - McCain. Pro-life - McCain. Willing to find compromise in Congress - McCain. States' rights - McCain. Education - McCain. Honest - McCain. Trustworthy - McCain. Experience - McCain.
Cousin Eddy Loves Obama and is Waiting to Retire on Welfare
You obviously don't understand human nature. Cousin Eddy isn't at all sure who George Bush is. But he understands all of the freebies promised by Barack Obama loud and clear. Eddy doesn't believe in work. He is not principled. He does not react to political philosophy. He just wants benefits. He takes his newly accrued sick leave day every month. He doesn't save. He puts nothing away for a rainy day. While I worked my way through college, Eddy partied.
I am proud to pay for the business of my nation, our military, our schools, our roads, and so forth. But not for the bums in America who will not work.
What Should We Do With Cousin Eddy?
Hey, don't feel too bad; every family has a "Cousin Eddy".
What is it you think that McCain and Palin will do that will make Cousin Eddy's behavior and worldview more tolerable, more rational, better for him and for society? Are they going to send out police to make him get a job? Or is he going to (as my "cousin eddy" does) continue to be a serial mooch, sucking life out of whatever kind innocents he gets his hooks into? Are they going to pass a law having all "cousin eddys" put to death? Pressed into hard labor?
I don't know how much you make, but your post rings with echoes of the great Conservative deception that's infected a good portion of our middle class, allowing the richest few to suck more and more value from the rest of the world. That deception is manifold, but a few tenets are things like: If I worked hard to get things, then anyone who doesn't have them doesn't work hard, and anyone who has more works harder. Or: Someone who makes more money has worked hard and deserves to have more money in some metaphysical sense, categorically.
These myths persist despite the fact that there's no evidence to suggest that on balance, people who make more than $250k/year work harder, or at harder jobs, than people who make $45k/year. In fact, there's quite a bit of evidence to the contrary - many studies have shown that workload isn't linear, and tapers down as you climb the management ladder. But we assume that money==value and therefore whatever they do is of greater value.
You say:
I am proud to pay for the business of my nation, our military, our schools, our roads, and so forth. But not for the bums in America who will not work.
So you have a list of socialized services you agree with, great. I'm not sure how Obama's plan is supposed to pay for the "bums" in America who will not work. I've not heard him speak of rolling out wide-ranging federal doles; I've heard him speak of making sure that everyone has health care. Health care is great, but you can't get an apartment with it. I've heard him promise that the government will pay people's way to college - if they will perform public service. I've heard him say he wants to use federal funds to finance infrastructure projects - but for cousin Eddy to benefit from that, he has to go get a job working on those projects. I've heard him say he will take tax credits from companies who outsource, and give them to companies who hire American workers. Again, Cousin Eddy has to get a job to benefit from this. I've heard him say that he wants to offer subsidies to American companies hiring American workers to produce and support alternative energy systems like solar cells and windmills. Again, CE is gonna have to get a job to benefit.
Don't listen to the McCain talking points. Read Obama's platform. And yes, I've read McCain's platform.
Obama is a Socialist and a Neophyte in National Security
I do not want this man in our presidency. These are dangerous times. Obama is not who he says he is. Socialism doesn't work. Our capitalism has built the mightiest country in the history of the world. We don't want to be like the tired worn out economies of Europe who have depended on a strong America for the last one hundred years to keep them free. And when you put a face on socialism it isn't very appealing. My cousin Eddy isn't a bum but he doesn't work very hard and yet, when (not if, when) Obama allows the Bush tax Cuts to expire, my take home pay drops $666 per month (I make $60,000 per year after working my tail off for 8 years in a job I don't like very much) and my money will go to Eddy and the others like him who simply don't put much emphasis on working and would rather drink beer and chase girls. THAT'S NOT FAIR!
No socialism for America or all of the hard workers will stop working hard and we'll be just like Europe.
Cousin Eddy
Well maybe Cousin Eddy doesn't work very hard b/c he's so discouraged by how the Bush administration has screwed up the economy. Thus, he figures "What's the point?" With Obama at the wheel, Eddy will have the encouragement to say, "Yes I can...YES I CAN!!"
Obama would probably prefer
Obama would probably prefer this race to be tight going into Tuesday's election.
If he goes in 10 points or more up then people will start to think blow out and skip out on voting. Also, he is banking on al lthese new and young voters. So if they, as in every other cycle, do not show up and other people choose to stay home because they think blow out....McCain could slip by.
Don't get it twisted
Yael, I'm suprised that you think th eaverage reader is so stupid. You failed to give all of the Gallups Polls recent data on this election. True the Gallup daily "traditional" polls states the numbers you quoted. However, Obama is still maintaining his 50% and over lead in the Gullup likely voters (expanded) poll and Gallup registered voters. Please tell the whole story and not just part of it to further your own bias opinion.
However, you have to take
However, you have to take into consideration that ALL of these polls are inflating the democrat participation rate because of the increase in voter registration, etc. Some of these polls are increasing the democrats over republicans by as much as 10-15 percentage points. Meaning they are sampling 36% democrat and 24% republican.
Gallup in their expanded polls have included these increased voter participation rates. But with their traditional they are using the same methods as in years past to determine what is a true likely voter. As Zogby has said every year we see increases in registration and every democrat candidate claims the new and young voters will come out in droves and each time they fail to do so.
SO Gallup is running both ways. Basically they are saying either these people do not show up in large numbers as Obama hopes or they do and Obama's election is even more historic than ever. First black candidate and the first person to truly get young and new voters out to the polls.
Disturbing error in your post
You write, "The sudden plunge on the likely voter poll pulls him below the winning 50 percent mark for the first time in more than a week."
This indicates that you do not understand the most basic facts about how presidential elections work. A candidate does not need to garner more than 50 percent of the popular vote to win the presidency. I refer you to any of the numerous explanations of the electoral process for details.
Yes, plus the fact that the
Yes, plus the fact that the Kansas City Star is an extremely biased newspaper that overwhelmingly favors the GOP. You can't take this article seriously! Next time, Mr. Abouhalkah, maybe you should do a little more research among other polls before becoming completely married to the one by your own paper.