By Yael T. Abouhalkah, Kansas City Star Editorial Page columnist
A new study says KC's population has shot past 500,000. In fact, because of Census undercounting, the city supposedly has about 70,000 more people than the Census Bureau and city officials have long thought. Frankly, it's hard to believe.
City officials will be closely looking at this study in the next few weeks.
If the report is correct, the city could get a lot more federal money for all kinds of programs with a higher population.
But this 70,000-plus number looks unrealistic. And remember, the city's own officials have said the city has stayed in the range of 441,000 and 450,000 over the last decade.
The study was done by the Bloch School’s Cookingham Institute for Urban Affairs at UMKC and many other community partners.
A UMKC press release says the "Drilldown" study "uses a multitude of city, state and commercial data records to create a more accurate picture of demographic and economic information in urban core neighborhoods."
The U.S. Census said KC had 441,545 people in 2000. If the new study's figures are accurate, the city actually has close to 510,000 people right now.
The Drilldown study deserves further review in the coming days. It appears to contain some equally upbeat news about the average household income of KC residents, as well as the economic strength of the 3rd District.
Robyne Turner of the Bloch School was quoted in the press release as saying, "Kansas City's DrillDown results reveal a strong market for retail in the urban core by virtue of the density of households. Density in a small area yields purchasing power, despite modest levels of average household income. In that small trade area, there is demand, income, and geographic access for a retailer or service provider such as a bank, small business, or builder to capitalize on.









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Duh
Do you suppose that since the last census was 8 years ago that the population of KC may have grown by 70,000+???
Oh and to keep you up to date the next one is in a couple of years.
Oh and Tiller, I've met quite a few actuary's and most are about a half bubble off dead center.
I don't believe it, either
Denise Tiller, Midwest Voices 2008
As an actuary, I just had to look into this. The US Census isn't just a estimate based on a sample, we actually count everyone we can find. They mail forms to every address in the country and follow up on every form that is not returned (about 25%). They go to soup kitchens, shelters, campgrounds, and fairs to count people. They go out to rural areas where people don't have addresses. They estimate about 2% of the people are missed and they double count about 1%.
They do undercount poor people and minorities, but I don't believe that the census would be off by 15%. As near as I can see the UMKC study is based on samples. They didn't attempt to contact every household and count people. Samples are only as good as the input and the formulas. There are a lot of places to make mistakes. I'll go with the census.
Denise Tiller, Midwest Voices 2008
I'm tending not to believe
I'm tending not to believe the hype. The Bloch school is a business school, for one, and not in the business of assessing a census count. If the feds and the city come fairly close in terms of their population counts, what is the Bloch School adding in that the others aren't?
I'll bet money that they are looking at earnings tax records, which will show people working in the city, but not necessarily LIVING in KC.
...and the Star's population has dropped by 250!
Yea!!!
DKC was right on target -
DKC was right on target - you can thank the porous borders for a lot of this gain. If you doubt me, hire any company that employs manual labor to service your house.
Kansas City Urban Markets Assets
Project KCUMA is a public-private partnership between UMKC, the City of Kansas City MO, NonProfit Technologies, development councils, community development corporations and Social Compact to stimulate investment and provide better asset data for the Kansas City urban core. Partners include Social Compact; City of Kansas City, MO: Planning Department, Water Department, Codes, Building Permits, IT; Jackson County; Platte County; Clay County; UMKC Center for Economic Information; UMKC Bloch School Cookingham Institute of Urban Affairs; DST Systems, Inc; MainCor; Southtown Council; Brush Creek Community Partners; Econ. Development Council of Kansas City; Broadway/Westport Association; Nonprofit Technologies, llc; and Plum Design
• The DrillDown estimates the current population of the city of Kansas City, Missouri to be 533,117 - approximately 71,000 higher than 2000 Census estimates.
• Census 2006 estimates show a small population decrease of -1.9 percent, compared to the DrillDown estimates of a 15 percent increase.
• The DrillDown estimates that Kansas City's average household income is $54,000, 13 percent higher than the Census 2000 estimate. When the informal or "cash" economy is included, the average household income rises to $57,000.
• The DrillDown estimates the citywide cash economy to be worth $668 million dollars.
• Downtown neighborhoods show strong change and very high purchasing power per acre.
• District 3, often perceived as lacking market viability, exhibits strong density and the second highest purchasing power per acre in the city.
• Neighborhoods in the northland, including Shoal Creek, experienced rapid change and growth since the Census 2000.
Yael, What is your problem?
You seem to find it hard to believe anything positive about Kansas City, don't you? When a well-qualified group of very capable organizations, including UMKC's Bloch School, offers an upbeat assessment of population growth and other demographic factors, you find it hard to believe. You even cite the same City officials that you've been lambasting for years as a credible source to counter the good news. Quit trying to have it both ways! We're getting tired of your whining.
Please Ask The Researchers
How many of the 71,000 are here legally.
Question
Are you sure ACORN didn’t help do the count?
Ross Balano Midwest Voices 2008