Why Akin won't quit: New poll shows he's even with McCaskill
Yael T. AbouhalkahTodd Akin just tweeted the good news for him late Thursday morning:
“Even Democrat-favoring @PPPPolls has us neck & neck w/ Claire!”
And, yep, Akin is right: Against all odds, he is holding his own with the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate race from Missouri - even while all the Republican honchos keep calling on him to quit the race because “he can’t win.”
Oh, yeah?
Here’s the Public Policy Polling survey.
McCaskill is ahead by a slim 45-44 margin.
The PPP survey last week had it reversed, 44-43 for Akin.
And the money quote from the poll: “Ultimately this race will be decided by conservative voters who have to decide if they’re so unhappy with Akin that they want to let Democrats keep control of the Senate. My guess is those folks will ultimately hold their noses and support their party’s candidate.”
If that holds true, Akin has a decent shot at winning, much as many Missourians don’t want to hear that.
Naturally, McCaskill and others are just waiting for Akin to say something else crazy about abortion or any other topic.
But even as they wait, it becomes evident that many Missouri voters are willing to support Akin because of his views on these topics.
And here’s something else McCaskill’s backers won’t like.
As I have pointed out before, she just isn’t popular with a ton of Missouri voters.
From the poll: “Only 40 percent of voters approve of the job she’s doing to 55 percnet who disapprove.”
That will make it tough - but certainly far from impossible - for McCaskill to get re-elected.
Kent Mueller
9 months, 3 weeks agoThe fact that Akin is polling well now says far more about McCaskill than it does about Akin.
Mark Hastert
9 months, 3 weeks agoAkin is proof that for some voters there is no such thing as a too stupid candidate.
We’re talking about a guy on the House science committee who lacks a basic understanding of the female anatomy that he’s trying to legislate. Ya know, if you’re gonna write laws about something it ought to be based on a minimal factual understanding of the subject.
JR Beillenhouser
9 months, 3 weeks agoThe devil is in the details.
Polls mean nothing is the sampling does not reflect what is likely in an election. Always look at the sampling.
If PPP want Akin to stay in the race (which it does) then expect a high Repub to Dem sampling.
If you want to make Obama appear to be winning this election (which most polls do) look at the high Dem sampling. (A NYT polls several week ago had a sampling of >+ D 11, Pew had a +D19 in a poll last week)
What should the sampling be?
2008 was the best year ever for democrats at +7 and Republicans where 32% of the voters. (Which would make the dems 39%)
2010 had the Republicans at 35% of the voters, the Dems 35% and independents at 30% or a +R0.
Anything with Dem sampling over 7% is flawed, but this is what we continue to see to make it look like Obama is in the lead. This year, I’d expect a similar turn out as 2010.
We know how that ended.
Phil Cardarella
9 months, 3 weeks agoActually, Todd Akin’s POLICY position on abortion is no different from the GOP platform — and no different from his ideological twin, Paul Ryan. Those who believe that no woman has any rights to her body superior to the demands of a fertilized single celled organism in side her really could care less about Akin’s inept attempt to justify this position by postulating magic powers to the uterus.
The issue with the Rove/Koch types is not abortion policy, but the idea that Akin may have hurt their chances of gaining the Senate. Most of the GOPers at that level could care less about abortion. If the only way to keep the capital gains tax at 15% was to sacrifice toddlers on the altar of Baal, they would be stoking the fire — and hiring some preachers to claim it to be God’s Will!
Kent Mueller
9 months, 3 weeks agoPhil, what was horrid was your statement about sacrificing toddlers. However, I have no doubt that you meant it.
I wanted Akin to step down. I still want him to. To show how hapless McCaskill is, the Republicans can replace Akin now, most likely, win. Heck, a severely damaged Akin might even beat her.
How can this be? It is because McCaskill voted in the way Obama wanted her to vote 98% of the time. If that is off, it’s not off by much. Her voting record also correlates very high with Harry Reid. Yes, that Harry Reid. Missourians don’t want what Obama and Reid are selling. Therefore, they don’t want what McCaskill is selling.
The clearest way to look at this is that it might just take Claire McCaskill to lose to Todd Akin. LOL
George Hunsucker
Northland
9 months, 3 weeks agoAir Claire: 0’care=YES, debt ceiling expansion=YES, porkulus bill=YES reelect Air Claire=NO
Phil Cardarella
9 months, 3 weeks agoOK, I get it that you guys do not like the Affordable Care Act. I think you are wrong, but let us set that aside.
Exactly what else are you guys mad at Claire about? And please do not say “because she votes with Obama” or “with Reid”. Heck, given the nature of the legislative process, she probably voted “with” Paul Ryan on a lot of stuff — like the bank bailout and bill to save GM. What specific things have so offended you?
And, FYI? The toddler/Baal thing was just an exageration for effect. The “money” GOP has no actual religious attachment to the theocratic wing. It is a marriage of convenience for power. Not for a minute do the GOP Grandees intend for there to be the slightest impact on their own lives or their children’s. If some desperate 14 year old dies from a botched back-alley abortion? Hey! It’s not like she is one of them.
And, she’s no toddler, right?
Kent Mueller
9 months, 2 weeks agoPhil, that was a despicable statement. If you are going to accuse people of not caring if a 14 year old dies, then you need to be more specific about to whom you are referring. Who, exactly, do you think doesn’t care if a 14 yr old dies?
Your marriage of convenience of power is an odd reference. I suppose you see a lot in common between union laborers and Greenpeace?