Nutty conspiracy theories about the jobs report
Barb ShellyI have to say that these monthly jobs reports are a mystery to me, as I suspect they are for many people. Particularly confusing is this ongoing revision of previous months’ numbers.
But it had never occurred to me, as indeed it has to former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, that the see-saw nature of the jobs reports are actually a political ploy to help Barack Obama retain the presidency.
“Unbelievable jobs numbers…these Chicago guys will do anything…can’t debate so change numbers,” Welch posted on his Twitter account today, after this month’s report showed an improved 7.8 percent unemployment rate.
Please.
A couple of months ago, The New York Times explained how the Bureau of Labor Statistics arrives at its monthly report.
You can read about the process here, but, in a nutshell, the Census Bureau surveys 60,000 representative households and sends data to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The bureau, meanwhile, surveys 500,000 businesses for jobs added or lost during the previous month. Experts then crunch the numbers and perform their statistical magic. That’s a lot of people to involve in a grand Chicago-style political conspiracy.
It’s fine and expected that politicians will spin the numbers as they see fit. But questioning the integrity of professional civil servants, many of whom have been doing this work for years, is getting into nutcase territory.
Mark Hastert
7 months, 3 weeks agoCNN/Christine Romans has already reported on this. Just another case of Republican whining. If they have arithmetic they don’t like they just make up new answers or excuses they do like.
Matt Henry
7 months, 3 weeks agoI agree that Welch didn’t need to go there. The facts about the jobless numbers, which are embarrassment to the President and his followers should be allowed to stand on their own merits without this sort of distraction.
That being said, congrats to Barb on your unblemished record of obfuscation for the President. Now that you have finished with your expose on Welch’s conspiracy theory, how about one on WHY the jobless number is at 7.8? How about something as simple as an acknowledgement that if the workforce was the same size as at the start of this year (you know, fully into the recovery) that the rate would be 8.4%? THAT’S how many people have quit looking this year alone.
And yet The One is trumpeting the good news this morning to all of his sap followers who don’t know Malt-o-Meal from shinola. What an embarrassment.
JR Beillenhouser
7 months, 3 weeks agoYeah, Mark - we already know that Democrats and math go together like vampires and garlic. Math is the strong point of the Reps and they have good reason to question an change that mathematically makes no sense. I’m sure they will find their error about November 10th or so.
The real issue is that the u6 number didn’t change. The change of the one number should affect the other.
And Barb, this is exactly why your paper is going down the tubes. In journalism school, don’t they teach you be curious, to find answers, to explore and report what you find? or do they teach you to parrot Daily Kos opinions. You obviously got the latter.
Johnathon Busby
7 months, 3 weeks agoWhen you can’t argue a point, you attack the facts. Attack the polls, attack the surveys, attack the statistics. It’s the stench of GOP desperation.
Mark Hastert
7 months, 3 weeks agoFAUX News and friends are already whining like a bunch of little …….! Got to love it. They never complained when the number was bad.
Obama finds a way to save $716billion on Medicare, improve services and Republicans think that’s bad. It’s more proof that the Republicans hate Barack Obama more than they love America.
Johnathon Busby
7 months, 3 weeks agoOh, and Junior, if the conservatives could do math as you suggest, they would never have come to the silly 6,000 year Earth theory.
Phil Cardarella
7 months, 3 weeks agoIf the Dems were able to cook the books on this, why did they not start earlier and go lower. Say, 6.4%?
As for math, Mitt is not entitled to “magic” math: Either he is going to drop those tax rates or he is — but, if he does, it is a $5 Billion hole in revenue that has to be made up. And, that is a LOT of deductions to be eliminated for most Americans. The only persons for whom this will be “revenue neutral” will be Mitt’s fellow super-rich.
JR Beillenhouser
7 months, 3 weeks agoJohnathon - Not all conservatives believe in creationism. But I’m betting that they are much more adept at balancing a checkbook. They seem to get the point that you can’t continue to spend more than you take in, and that, yes, 6.5 trillion in 4 years is much worse than 5 trillion in 8 years.
And when you are liberal and you get your ass handed to you in the debate, blame the moderator, or blame it on the challenger using more time (even though Obama used 4 more minutes talking than Romney). Or blame it on a magical handkerchief that mysteriously morphed into a cheat sheet. So what were you saying about not arguing a point?
What I would expect though is some analysis from a columnist, instead of just carrying water for Obama. Sorry that you are too ignorant to expect the same.
“Put simply: take 100,000 new and newly-discovered government jobs, add a modest 100,000 private sector jobs, then—crucially—add 600,000 part-time jobs taken by people suddenly losing their federal extended unemployment benefits, and you suddenly have a near-complete explanation of how the unemployment rate fell dramatically in a near-recession economy.”
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/05/Unemployment-Mystery-Solved-As-Jobless-Benefits-Expire-More-Seek-Part-Time-Work
Mark Hastert
7 months, 3 weeks agoWah! Wah! Wah! went the cry babies at Faux. Root, root, root against America!
Johnathon Busby
7 months, 3 weeks agoJunior; no, but all people who believe in creationism are conservative. And not only can I balance my own checkbook, but also that of multi million dollar funds (Pimco is one of my clients, as example).
Willard only “won” the debate, in that he didn’t ruin himself as completely as was expected. He was mediocre, rather than pathetic. He was lukewarm, rather than icy.
So by all means, continue to deny reality. Cling to your illusion that the polls are all in cahoots with one another (even those put out by conservative outlets like Fox). Deny the Earth revolves around the sun, if it pleases you.
George Hunsucker
Northland
7 months, 3 weeks agoI know why the big 0 did so poorly in the debate, it was Bush’s fault!!!!!
JR Beillenhouser
7 months, 3 weeks agohttp://www.aei-ideas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/100512popratio.jpg
Other analysis.
Job loses last month 360000 New Jobs 114000 Economic Growth rate 1.7 But the unemployment rate drops because of 600,000 new jobs last month. And it is the biggest gain in a month in 29 years.
Yeah Barb, don’t try to look for facts, instead, you and Johnathon can go to Starbucks together and look for ways to deflect.
Perhaps while you are sipping on coffee you might want to do a story about how the Obama administration didn’t protect the US Embassy in Libya and allowed our Ambassador to be sodomized, murdered, and dragged through the streets. Oh, and then they tried to cover it up.
JR Beillenhouser
7 months, 3 weeks agoI’m guessing maybe it was just the affect of the cold front moving in, or perhaps the altitude.
Mark Hastert
7 months, 3 weeks agoJack Welsh is a good example of the way Republicans think these days. They’re so very convinced of their own virtue, such a sense of entitlement, that if anything doesn’t go their way it’s because they were cheated.
They truly do hate Barack Obama more than they love America to the point that they would wish ill on the country so they could benefit politically.
JR Beillenhouser
7 months, 3 weeks agoJack Welch has nothing to gain by questioning the administration. But individuals are forced to do so because the media won’t do their jobs. The unemployment rate doesn’t make sense, anyone who is not a partisan hack understands this.
I’m guessing our friends in the media are too busy to investigate this story because they are either chasing leads on fast and furious or the Libya coverup. Cmon, even Univision does a better job of questioning the administration than the big meda.
The best thing about this though is that because the media accepts everything Obama says and do not question him that he cannot properly back up his policies. Because he does not take questions and gets offended when someone actually calls him out, he ends up losing the debate. He’s had it too easy. Comedy Gold.
George Hunsucker
Northland
7 months, 2 weeks agoThe libs are perfectly happy believing the government that we have just experienced the best job growth for a month in 29 years.
Next thing you know they will be believing that the big 0 ‘s performance has been outstanding. He did not perform, time to “let him go”…. I can hardly wait until TH night when big Joe gets to defend 4 years of jimmy II’s “leadership” and “progress”—should be an interesting evening, but it will of course be Bush’s fault…
Libs are a hoot….
Mark Hastert
7 months, 2 weeks agoWah! Wah! Wah! went the cry babies at Faux. “We was robbed!”
” I can hardly wait until TH night”
Me neither, Joe is never boring.
JR Beillenhouser
7 months, 2 weeks agohttp://redpillreport.net/2012/10/05/the-number-no-one-is-talking-about/
According to the President’s own numbers, if we had not done the stimulus, we would now be at a lower number of unemployment than we currently are. So basically, we blew about a trillion dollars for nothing.
Oh and Mark, always great to have your keen sense of analysis. You are so enlightened. With comment such as your last, you show your true intellect. We, like Obama to foreign heads of state, bow in your direction.
Mark Hastert
7 months, 2 weeks agoAll of the conservative commentary on these employment stats can be boiled down to “it’s terrible for us that more people finding jobs” Followed by crybaby rationalizations.
Employment has been improving for months. Recent months have been revised upward, the analysis from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, and Manpower are all positive. Yet Republican reaction to any good news is always disdainful. They really do hate Barack Obama more than they love America.
Yanwen Xia
Overland Park
7 months, 2 weeks agoWhat happened to our devil’s advocate — CC? It would be interesting to read what DA has to say on this.
George Hunsucker
Northland
7 months, 2 weeks agoNew twist to an old funny…
COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America .
ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It’s 9%.
COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?
ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%.
COSTELLO: You just said 9%.
ABBOTT: 9% Unemployed.
COSTELLO: Right 9% out of work.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%.
COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 16% unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 9%.
COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or16%?
ABBOTT: 9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.
COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, Obama said you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.
COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!
ABBOTT: No, you miss his point.
COSTELLO: What point?
ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.
COSTELLO: To whom?
ABBOTT: The unemployed.
COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work.
ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.
COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment roles that would count as less unemployment?
ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!
COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?
ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how Obama gets it to 9%. Otherwise it would be 16%. He doesn’t want you to read about 16% unemployment.
COSTELLO: That would be tough on his reelection.
ABBOTT: Absolutely.
COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number?
ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.
COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
ABBOTT: Correct.
COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?
ABBOTT: Bingo.
COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have Obama’s supporters stop looking for work.
ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like the Obama Economy Czar.
COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the heck I just said!
ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like Obama.