McCaskill, Cleaver, Nixon: Why they could lose - but won't
Yael T. AbouhalkahClaire McCaskill, Emanuel Cleaver and Jay Nixon are among the most popular politicians ever in Missouri.
All three have served in a variety of public offices for more than 25 years. And next Tuesday — because of their track records but also because of the subpar qualifications of their opponents — all three deserve to be re-elected.
And yet….
- McCaskill is in a tight race with Republican Todd Akin for her U.S. Senate seat.
That’s despite the fact McCaskill has multiple advantages. She has millions more in donations than Akin to spend on ads. Her opponent has been abandoned by his own party’s leaders. And Akin has made nationally ridiculed and inane comments about rape.
Still, Akin and his ultra-conservative views on federal spending, abortion and other issues are beloved throughout the state’s rural areas.
Polls also show that voters have a fairly high negative perception of McCaskill (Akin also has high negatives). Much of McCaskill’s problems can be linked to the fact that Missouri has turned increasingly Republican, hostile to policies — such as Obamacare — which she backed.
McCaskill often speaks frankly, a trait I admire in a politician, but one that can come across as brusque and high-handed to others. Add her problems with paying taxes on time for a private airplane and the continued attack by opponents on her husband’s many business connections to public spending, and McCaskill looks more like an out of touch Washington politician than she really is.
In the end, McCaskill probably will win because Akin is the weakest candidate Republicans could have selected in their primary in a state that will give Mitt Romney a large victory over President Barack Obama.
- Cleaver might have his closest race ever against Republican Jacob Turk in the U.S. House race for the District 5 seat.
Sure, the Democratic incumbent already has defeated Turk in 2006, 2008 and 2010.
But Cleaver — who seldom has deigned to do much campaigning since his first tough House election in 2004 — and his supporters ought to be more wary this year.
The congressman is in a newly configured district that might be less friendly to Democrats. His victory margin over Turk has declined from 32 percentage points in 2006 to 9 percentage points in 2010. Cleaver is the subject of a widely reported lawsuit over a car wash he owns, in which lots of federal tax dollars are at risk because of an unpaid loan.
More positively, Cleaver has delivered soaring and needed rhetoric on behalf of bipartisanship in Washington. He has brought home federal funds as earmarks to rebuild Kansas City’s urban core.
When the votes are counted Tuesday, expect him to survive the latest challenge from an undistinguished GOP candidate.
- Nixon could fall victim to a late surge from Republican Dave Spence in the governor’s contest.
Don’t believe me? You’ve got good reasons. Nixon has won all but one of his races for state offices by around 20 percentage points the last two decades (though he was swamped in two U.S. Senate bids).
However, his lead over Spence had dwindled to a six-point spread in the recent Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey in The Star, far down from earlier leads of up to 20 percentage points.
Nixon is a flexible politician. He’s a Democrat who tacks to the right to look like a Republican on fiscal matters. He’s shown no spine on Missouri’s laudable cigarette tax increase plan on Tuesday’s ballot, refusing to take a position on it. He’s too often silent and regrettably malleable on his duties, which include being a stronger supporter of better funding for education and health care issues.
Still, Nixon should come out ahead on Election Day, largely because Republicans sent in to battle a candidate (Spence) with little name recognition and little idea of what he would do as governor.
If you like McCaskill, Cleaver and Nixon, you’ll almost certainly see some good news next Tuesday.
If you don’t like them — and they win — then you need to hope better qualified GOP candidates run against them next time.
Reach Yael T. Abouhalkah at 816-234-4887 or abouhalkah@kcstar.com. He blogs at voices.kansascity.com and appears on “Ruckus” at 7 tonight on KCPT. Twitter @YaelTAbouhalkah
Steven Fetter
66223
7 months, 3 weeks agoI agree that the GOP deserves their fate with the candidates they put forth.
However, I sure wish I could take out a loan and if I defaulted, would only worry that tax dollars were at risk.
I would be awake at night concerned that my home would be at risk along with possible incarceration.
Must be nice to be connected.
Dan Smith
7 months, 3 weeks agoYael,
Once again your ability to be blinded by the left amazes me. We actually have a situation this year in MO. where all three of the canidates running from the GOP are better choices than the incumbant. Akin has made some stupid remarks, but who amung us has not (I am sure if we followed you around 24/7/365 for a year or two we could come up with some doozys too :) ). Jacob Turk has done nothing but dedicate himself to running for this position for several years. The Cleaver campain was so scared of him that they came up with the wildest redistricting done in the entire nation to try to prevent a third campain againt him. And when that didn’t work he just refused to show up for ANY of the canidate forums to debate the issues. jay Nixon has been a disaster for the state overall and his painting his opponant as something just this side of being a crook is stupid at best. So, the bank Spence was affiliated with LOANED him money to buy a house. Not like he was given a free ride, and he made the bank money by making his payments (something Cleaver should investigate doing some day). Seems like our capitalism working correctly here.
Come Tuesday I sure hope KC and MO joins the kickem all out movement and replaces our current crop of representatives with fresh faces.
Doug McKay
7 months, 3 weeks agoI want to go on record that I know Todd and what McCaskill says about him is so incredibly far from the truth, well, it is an outright lie. If you vote for Akin, you are voting for a man who works with integrity to serve his fellow man/woman. I still puzzle why someone who agrees with God, that life begins in the womb which is a view held by a majority of people, (over 55% last number I heard) is put forth as offensive and an attack on women. Why is believing that a woman’s body under great physical and emotional stress can reduce the possibility of conception such a ludicrous and vile statement? Ask any fertility doctor or childless couple and ask about all of the things they try to create the ideal environment for conception. How narrow minded and biased are you if you believe there is no such thing as a legitimate rape vs. a “I drank too much and was raped,” morning after remorse. Go to your local law enforcement and ask any officer to describe the rape victims appearance and mannerisms. They will tell you that they immediately recognize a legitimate rape victim, vs. a questionable rape. Rape is horrible and a violent attack an any person (mostly women) and Todd had the right answer which is rarely if ever repeated. He said, “I believe there should be solid laws in place to deal definitively with the criminal because there are many victims of rape” That’s right he means the primary victim, and her/his family, friends, and I guarantee Todd is concerned about the possible life that has been created. Ask Claire if she cares if a baby dies because of a rape. She won’t answer the question, just hide behind, I’m pro-choice and this is a ridiculous conversation.
Todd is very clear. He will protect our first right, the right to life, and he will fight for our liberty, not government made rights, God given rights. He will not pretend that he knows more than you do, so if you only knew what I know. That’s McCaskill.
Johnathon Busby
7 months, 3 weeks agoExactly as I predicted; the win or loss of Akin will ride on the number of people in Mo willing to sell their souls to spite Obama or anyone who had anything to do with him. Akin is an intellectual infant who should not hold a job sacking french fries, let alone hold office.
Yet there are enough people willing to ignore his painfully obvious failings that he still has a chance, even after all he’s said and done. That’s the socially conservative movement; they want to ensure you have no choice in your own body. They deny there’s such a thing as legitimate rape (see Akin), suggesting women’s bodies can fend off such a pregnancy. They deny health of the mother, as Mr Mourdoch recently claimed. In short, social conservatives want to control your decisions, because they don’t think you can make your own choices.
But wait, there’s more! As they mandate your sexual activities and reproductive decisions, the other side of their forked tongues spill lies about small government and minimum interference in the lives of private citizens!
The socially conservative movement is nothing more than a steaming, fetid mound of backwards thinking, an organization for hypocrites and Luddites.
Jim Satterfield
7 months, 3 weeks agoSorry, Doug, but I don’t feel that the United States should be ruled in the name of your version of God. Thanks for proving yet again how misogynistic a certain segment of the far right wing of the GOP and American Christianity continues to be. And of course Akin pretends to know more than I do. You and he both are quite certain that only your interpretation of God’s will is true and that this knowledge gives you the right to have laws forcing others to live according to your beliefs. I can’t think of anything more egotistical and self serving than that.
John Stolte
7 months, 3 weeks agoThe Democrats are lovely people. Claire failed to pay taxes on her airplane, Cleaver defaulted on his government guaranteed car wash loan, Chris Koster’s own wife turned against him, Jay Nixon lies about working across the aisle (he’s forced to because the Mo House and Senate are majority Republican). Yes - a really lovely bunch. If you have a lick of sense you will vote them all out!
Johnathon Busby
7 months, 3 weeks agoAnd yet they all can pass an eighth grade level biology test… compare that to Akin and his ilk, and the result is I’ll vote for the competent sleazes (yes, they do indeed leave a slime trail as they walk) over the anti-science, anti-truth crowd.
Doug McKay
7 months, 3 weeks agoJohnathon, Let’s be clear here. I never told you can or cannot have sex. God obviously allows you to do that so I would be out of line to tell you what you can or cannot do. You have all the choices you want up to the moment you create life. Now your choice is done. With all of the easily available cheap forms of contraception you should certainly be able to come up with a way to prevent pregnancy. Abortion is not birth control. It is murder. Being pregnant is not a disease, it is a responsibility and my understanding is God considers it a blessing. Your statements about Todd show a lack of willingness to know the person. When Claire first ran for public office, I was very supportive of her. She seemed common sense and able to hold her own in the public arena. The longer she is in Washington, the more she reflects her personal views or specifically those views which provide her with more power. I know we are years apart based on your picture, so you will have to consider the life lessons I have graduated from. Your perspective is your perspective and I respect that. Please try to have a conversation in the future without the name calling. THIS is what will solve our problems. Dialogue. Lets try it.
Doug McKay
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim, I’m not sure I said enough about my version of God for you to make that JUDGEMENT! Did you have a more specific point or did you just want to shout down an opposing point of view! Tell me something about what you believe about Claire and why she is the candidate. Stand up for someone or something. To be against something, all you have to do is lean.
Johnathon Busby
7 months, 3 weeks agoAbortion being murder is your supposition, not fact; don’t misrepresent it. My statements about Todd show I know the person very well, based on his own statements. I willingly accept Claire’s failings, so long as she understands the basic facts of life. That alone puts her head and shoulders above her competition.
We don’t have to find positive things to say about Claire; Akin has said more than enough negative, inane, ignorant, under-educated, foolish, and flat out inaccurate things to disqualify him from any position of authority.
Phil Cardarella
7 months, 2 weeks agoLet’s see: The guy who is supporting for President a corporate raider who hides his money off-shore and his tax returns in a vault — but who manages to manipulate the system to pay taxes at a lower rate than his chauffeur — is shocked that Claire’s husband’s corporate bookkeeper took unfair advantage of locating personal property to avoid taxes?
DUH!
And, he is upset that Cleaver is not a very good car wash entrepreneur? And it was up to the government to guarantee some loans — like they had to guarantee the millions for the Bain Capital-organized retirement fund defaults?
DUH!
OK, Chris probably does not qualify as a perfect ex-hubby — but his opponent seems to have an e-mail related ethics dilemma.
Jay is just Jay. He has been a mitigating influence on the crazies that constitute the GOP Legisalture.
I gotta admit that whenever i see a Spence commercial where he claims to be a superduper “job creator”? I think that it would be a shame to take him out of the private sector where he isw creating all those jobs — since, you know, the GOP will be happy to tell you that government does not create jobs.
Johnathon Busby
7 months, 2 weeks agoNon entirely true, Phil. The GOP will claim all day that the government does not create jobs.
…except in the defense sector, then the government creates thousands of jobs.
Ignore their contradiction. They would prefer it.
John Stolte
7 months, 2 weeks agoReally cute try with the eighth grade biology remark Jonathan considering that today the schools teach more ideology than biology. I’m glad I went when they actually taught biology. Seems that you are the one who sold his soul to promote Karl Marx over Our Constitution.
Johnathon Busby
7 months, 2 weeks agoYes, they teach more than biology. Imagine what other subjects Akin knows nothing about, that he could, if he simply paid better attention in school. He sure is ignorant, you’re spot on.
You can have Karl, I won’t support him. And I’ve mostly positive things to say about the constitution. It’s the socially conservative movement that has nothing worth while to contribute to humanity, or to the world.