Midwest Voices

E. Thomas McClanahan

The Kansas City Star

The government reported an excellent job-creation number this morning — 243,000 new jobs for January. The champaign corks were no doubt popping in the White House. I certainly liked watching the market zoom up in reaction, but it pays to remember that unemployment is a lagging indicator.

The leading indicators don’t look that whippy.

Then there was the Congressional Budget Office, which put out a prediction earlier this week that landed on optimists like a wet blanket. CBO expects growth to reach only 2 percent this year, then fade to 1.1 percent in 2013. Predicted jobless rate on election day: 8.9 percent.

If that pans out, Obama will be in real trouble, not only because of the economy’s lackluster showing but because of the dashed hopes that will come if the current upswing fades. When Jimmy Carter lost his bid for a second term, the jobless rate was 7.5 percent. When George H.W. Bush lost his bid, unemployment was 7.4 percent. The current rate: 8.3.

CBO’s pessimism has deepened since its forecast issued in August. In the earlier report, it predicted a $953 billion deficit for this year. Now it’s predicting a $1.1 trillion deficit.

Comments

1. 

   Mark Hastert

   3 months, 1 week ago

   You are the rain on my parade. Your remarks sound a lot like Speaker Boehner’s. Don’t you get it? It’s been a long dark period and we want to be happy for a change.

2. 

   George Hunsucker

   Northland

   3 months, 1 week ago

   Now, we all understand…I can just see these two guys doing this skit….

   Subject: Who’s on first? - Unemployment

   NOW I GET IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!! COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America .

   ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It’s 9%.

   COSTELLO: That many people are out of work? ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%. COSTELLO: You just said 9%. ABBOTT: 9% Unemployed. COSTELLO: Right 9% out of work. ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%. COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 16% unemployed. ABBOTT: No, that’s 9%… COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or 16%? ABBOTT: 9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work. COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed. ABBOTT: No, you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed. COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!! ABBOTT: No, you miss my point. COSTELLO: What point? ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work, can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair. COSTELLO: To whom? ABBOTT: The unemployed. COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work. ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work… Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed. COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment? ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely! COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?

   ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how you get to 9%. Otherwise, it

   would be 16%. You don’t want to read about 16% unemployment do ya? COSTELLO: That would be frightening. ABBOTT: Absolutely. COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means they’re two ways to bring down the unemployment number? ABBOTT: Two ways is correct. COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job? ABBOTT: Correct. COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job? ABBOTT: Bingo. COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just stop looking for work. ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like an economist. COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the hell I just said! And now you know why Obama’s unemployment figures are improving!

3. 

   Kay Fox

   Kansas City

   3 months, 1 week ago

   The issue is will we have a United States?

   We talk of figures, blah, blah, blah, but what matters is our debt and our moral decay, we have lost our values can any nation survive without them? Nope.

   Nice try E.T. Tell us more, the truth isn’t always pretty, but we’re strong enough to take it…if the numbers are the truth, A?

   When the government started changing the items they used to measure inflation…it was the hand writing on the wall…how could they? Just like their changing the number now. If things are looking up, why doesn’t the guy on the street feel it?

4. 

   Steve Alleman

   Kansas City

   3 months, 1 week ago

   Blah blah blah moral decay blah blah blah we have lost our values blah blah blah.

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