Obama better hope this guy isn't one-man focus group
The Kansas City Star
Former Pentagon and White House official Douglas MacKinnon muses that he has many close friends, associates and family who are Democrats who voted for Obama in ‘08. None of them will do it again in 2012.
“Why? Because they view him as an abject failure across the board and have decided to put the welfare of their families and themselves before the empty rhetoric of the Obama campaign before it’s too late.”
He continues: “Because of my time in Washington and past positions there, I also know and am friends with quite a few journalists. I speak with many on a regular basis, and it’s safe to say that the majority of them lean left politically.
“That said, in off-the-record conversations with my left-leaning journalistic friends, not one believes Obama is going to win re-election. Not one. While most believe Mitt Romney to be a weak candidate, they are still convinced that he will comfortably defeat Obama on Nov. 6.”
If this proves true, it means the current polls are probably close because of the “Bradley effect”: voters lying to pollsters because they’re afraid of appearing to be racially biased. The phenomenon got its name after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost a race for Califorinia governor even though he was ahead in the polls.
The Bradley effect could be in play this year or it couldn’t. But I’ve seen for myself what MacKinnon writes of journalists. Earlier this year I had dinner with a couple of former Star guys who moved to the L.A. Times years ago. Neither thought Obama would win.
MacKinnon says Romney will win in a walk. I think the chances are greater it will be close. Mitt Romney hasn’t closed the sale, although he still has time. Reagan didn’t do it until the debates. Romney needs to move away from the security of generalities and offer more specifics about his plans for the economy, the debt and entitlements.
The Dems will shoot at it, but what have they got? MacKinnon again: “Obama has no domestic policy to speak of. He has no foreign policy to speak of. He has no jobs program to speak of. His signature health care plan is driving doctors out of the field, crippling small businesses and putting thousands of Americans out of work. The Obama of 2012 has nothing positive to run on. Nothing. And guess what? He, more than anyone else in his White House or campaign, knows it.”