GDP report bodes ill for Obama re-elect
E. Thomas McClanahanToday’s report on fourth-quarter GDP was a disappointment. The consensus estimate was for a real growth rate of 3.2 percent but the number came in at 2.8. Worse, the average for the entire year was a lackluster 1.7 percent, too sluggish to bring down the jobless rate quickly and a deceleration from the 3.0 percent of 2010.
Moreover, the report bodes ill for the coming quarter. Real final sales rose by only 0.8 percent, while inventory-building surged. That suggests shelves are likely to be overstocked, which could mean fewer factory orders in the coming weeks.
But here’s the topper: Real disposable personal income — spending money — rose only 0.8 percent at an annual rate. Compared with the levels of a year ago, disposable income was DOWN by 0.1 percent. J.P. Morgan notes that this is the only decline ever recorded in a “non-recession environment.”
As it happened, The Star editorial board was visited by a group from the Condord Coalition yesterday. They talked about the budget and the still-growing entitlement problem — and about the economy. Joseph Minarik of the Committee for Economic Development and a former Democratic congressional staffer, said there’s no getting around the fact that the economy stinks.
“This economy,” he said, “is the worst economy in living memory for every American. This is a terrible economy.” The Federal Reserve seems to agree. Earlier this week, it said growth is so weak the Fed plans to keep interest rates near zero for another three years. All in all, this is a dispiriting batch of data, which may have prompted some Very Concerned Expressions at the White House this morning.
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Mark Hastert
3 weeks, 5 days agoThe glass is alays half empty with conservatives. Another way to look at the same data is that the economy is gaining momentum. HA-PPY DAYS
Kay Fox
Kansas City
3 weeks, 5 days agoIf only we could believe any government numbers…but the bad ones are easier to believe, true?
Can’t wait until we start getting “election year numbers” you?
What about the $1 trillion helicopter Ben just swapped for $1 trillion EUROs? Is that coming home in fractional banking? It’s my guess that’s how the year is GOING TO GET A LOT BETTER, your think?
George Hunsucker
Northland
3 weeks, 5 days agoOnly a true water-carrYing lib would say that growth decelerating from 3.0 to 1.7 is “gaining momentum”.
I hope you are being well-paid Mark for the foolish comments…. 3.0 to 1.7 is gaining momentum… rotflmao….
JR Beillenhouser
3 weeks, 5 days agoIt’s Nixon’s fault
Kent Mueller
3 weeks, 4 days agoMark, was that tongue in cheek? Saying that conservatives see the glass as half empty is your opinion, that’s fine. But saying that declining numbers show momentum? If you mean momentum going forward, how does that make sense?
Steve Alleman
Kansas City
3 weeks, 4 days agoI knew it, conservatives have come up with a new measure — ‘real final sales’ — because GDP is no longer working for them as a stick to beat Obama with. Trust me, if real final sales tick up over the next few months, they’ll find some new statistic to froth over.
Mark Hastert
3 weeks, 4 days ago…”. 3.0 to 1.7 is gaining momentum…” Read more here: http://voices.kansascity.com/entries/gdp-report-bodes-ill-obama-re-elect/#storylink=cpy
..but you got it backwards. First, the 3.2 was the forecast and you know how those are (like the Iraq war was going to last six months and cost $80billion).
The year began way down and increased in the last quarter. Employment is improving, GM is #1 again, Ford had record profits, consumer confidence is improving and Americans are becoming optimistic, we are finally out of Iraq, our armed forces are reunited with family, Bin Laden and dozens of his minions are dead. Sounds like momentum to me.
THAT’S ALL GOOD! BE HAPPY! I forot, dour is what conservatives do.
Kent Mueller
3 weeks, 4 days agoMark, once again you deftly switch numbers in what you write. You try to refute GDP growth decreasing from 3.0% in 2010 to 1.7% in 2011 by saying the 3.2% 4Q2011 estimate was unsurprisingly too rosy. That makes no sense. The accuracy of the 4th qtr estimate has nothing to do with the year over year trend.
Your point of the fourth qtr of 2011 being up would be valid, except for the fact that the increase you note is still less than the entire year of 2010.
Mark Hastert
3 weeks, 4 days agoConservatives are SUCH a buzz kill. Let’s use a car analogy. Our car was goung 30MPH slowed down and is now accelerating again. We’re not yet gonig as fast as we were but we’re gaining speed!!! HORAY!!!!HP-PEE DAYS
Kent Mueller
3 weeks, 4 days agoMark, I have to say that was closer to the point than referencing irrelevant estimates.
Mark Hastert
3 weeks, 4 days ago“that was closer to the point”
the buzz kill part?? You guys are PAR-TEE POOPERS
George Hunsucker
Northland
3 weeks, 4 days agoOnly a true water-carrier such as Mark would continue to argue that going from 3.0% to 1.7% increase in GDP is progress.
I truly feel sorry for the dude having to publicly make such silly statements for what??
Tote that hod, lift that bail, the dnc is ready to fail.
Mark Hastert
3 weeks, 3 days agoStill bitter KC? I would be too with the Tea Party waning and the front runniers savaging each other. Add to that the improving economy, jobs data, and all the other accomplishments jimmy ii/Big O can claim plus the likely Republican nominee is a moderate democrat. The world is growing dim for ultra conservatives. HAPP-EE DAYS ARE HERE A-GAIN!
Kent Mueller
3 weeks, 3 days agoMark, who is KC? I have never been to a Tea Party event, but I do believe in their core principles…a smaller federal government that is in line with the tenth amendment. We seem to have forgotten what enumerated powers even means. And if anyone thinks that was racist, then they are wrong.
But, anyway, seems like Lewis Diuguid took issue with your position, just today.
http://voices.kansascity.com/entries/tough-times-damage-obamas-re-election-chances/
But, I do understand the power of incumbency, and a cheering press which will be a wind to Obama’s back. But, hey, he has “stood” with OWS. Maybe that will ensure his victory.
http://www.kansascity.com/2012/01/28/3397316/occupy-oakland-protest-grows-to.html