Can Turk beat Cleaver? Yeah
Yael T. AbouhalkahRepublican Jacob Turk didn’t beat Democrat Emanuel Cleaver in 2006 the first time they squared off for the U.S. House seat representing much of Kansas City and Jackson County.
And Turk failed again in 2008. And yet again in 2010.
So what makes Turk, who announced Monday that he’s running once more, think that the fourth time around will be a charm and he can knock off Cleaver in 2012?
For one thing, Turk got a lot closer to winning in the Republican-dominated 2010 national races, when Cleaver got 53 of the vote and Turk received 44 percent. That means Cleaver fell far off the 64 percent of the vote he rolled up in the 2006 and 2008 races against Turk.
For another, thanks to Missouri’s loss of a congressional seat and subsequent redistricting this year, Cleaver will be running in a district that looks different than the one he’s won before. Although it still is supposed to be dominated by Democratic voters, the new district also will be a challenge for the four-term congressman.
Finally, Cleaver has won so easily before that he could imperiously think victory is his for the taking in 2012 as well.
Turk obviously is hoping that the GOP once again will appeal to a lot of voters in 2012. He might get his wish if Republicans line up a strong candidate to challenge Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon (although that doesn’t look likely) and someone to successfully rip into U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (more likely, but not yet assured).
Cleaver will have plenty going for him, including his well-known status as a former Kansas City mayor. Plus, while Turk fell just 17,000-plus votes shy of beating Cleaver in 2010, he was 88,000 behind in 2008, when voter turnout was much higher and - of course - Barack Obama won the presidency.
Cleaver will benefit if Obama runs well in his re-election campaign.
Then again, Turk could get closer and even win if Republicans mount a serious challenger to Obama, Missouri’s GOP gets behind him stronger than ever and Cleaver takes re-election for granted.
Lorien Johnson
1 year, 5 months agoGood assessments. Cleaver spent to keep his seat over twice what Turk spent in 2010… and Turk came quite close. Cleaver will not have the benefits of the momentum the Democrats had in 2008, and Kansas City is ready for genuine hope and change. The odds are strongly in Jacob Turk’s favor.
Stan Hall
1 year, 5 months agoCleaver has walked with McCaskill and Obama in destroying our jobs and economy. The 5th district needs Turk to help bring accountability to Congress! And since Cleaver et al have totally failed in their promises, Jacob has a very good chance of overcoming the Cleaver machine.
Janice Monahan
1 year, 5 months agoYES!YES!YES! Absolutely! Jacob can and Jacob will!! Jacob has all the power and values he needs and more importantly Washington and We the People need to pull it off! The Lord is with Him every step of the way. Don’t ever understimate His Power! Remember the David and Goliath Story and many others that prove when God has your back, and you have faith, its all you need. The last two losses against Cleaver were God-ordained, in order to teach people something they needed to learn. God’s Glory will come from it, no doubt in my mind! Some may believe its miracle when Jacob takes the seat, but Jacob and his loyal supporters know better…We BELIEVE! Go Jacob! Janice
Michelle White Sherer
1 year, 4 months agoI’m looking forward to this race. It is important for voters to look at both candidates and undertand their platforms. Simply voting for Cleaver because he is Democrat has not worked for the fifth district in the many years he has been in office. The fifth district needs to understand that it is capable of changing things. Obviously the status quo is not working. As a resident of the fifth district, I look forward to understanding how Turk is going to work and represent the people. I am disappointed in the lack of leadership that Mr. Cleaver has shown. I am ready for a real representative. I am ready for a representative that responds to my emails and calls. I am ready for a representative that LISTENS to their constituents and votes accordingly. I believe Jacob Turk is equipped with the morale needed to make these changes for the fifth district. Who in the fifth district ISN’T ready for a change?